What Rolex Is (Probably) Dropping at Watches and Wonders 2026
And what it means for the grey market.
April 14th is coming fast. Watches and Wonders Geneva 2026 kicks off in about six weeks, and Rolex, as always, is the main event. 66 brands will be exhibiting this year, Audemars Piguet is back, and the speculation machine is running hot.
Last year, nobody saw the Land-Dweller coming. A completely new collection with an integrated bracelet and Rolex’s first-ever high-beat movement? That caught everyone off guard. So take everything below with a grain of salt. But the clues this year are actually pretty strong.
I spent the last week going through every credible prediction piece, patent filing, and forum thread I could find. Here’s what I think is coming, what it means for prices, and how you should be thinking about it if you’re in the market.
1. The Milgauss Is Back?
This is the big one. The Milgauss was discontinued in 2023, and it’s turning 70 this year (officially launched in 1956 as the ref. 6541). Rolex doesn’t always celebrate anniversaries, but three things are lining up here:
The patent. In September 2025, Rolex filed a patent (US 12,428,335 B2) for a new method of producing colored sapphire crystals. If you know the Milgauss, you know the green-tinted crystal on the 116400GV was its signature. This patent covers a whole range of tinted crystals: green, blue, orange, red, pink, yellow, brown.
The Dynapulse connection. The new escapement Rolex debuted in the Land-Dweller’s calibre 7135 is naturally resistant to magnetic fields. Magnetic resistance was the entire point of the Milgauss. The tech and the heritage line up perfectly.
The design. Monochrome Watches mocked up a new Milgauss sharing the modern Air King’s case design: 40mm, smooth polished bezel, crown guards, clean lines. The lightning bolt seconds hand stays. The colored sapphire crystal stays. But now imagine matching the dial accents to the crystal tint. Green crystal with green accents. Blue with blue. Orange with orange.
If this lands, expect it to be one of the most hyped Rolex releases in years. The old Milgauss Z-Blue already commands strong premiums on the secondary market. A new version with Dynapulse and colored sapphire? That’s going to move.
Grey market impact: If you’re holding a 116400GV or any discontinued Milgauss, a new release could go either way. Sometimes a new version drives interest back to the older refs. Sometimes it replaces demand entirely. My bet is the Z-Blue holds or goes up, because that green crystal is iconic and the new version will be nearly impossible to get at retail.
2. Land-Dweller Gets New Colors (and Maybe a Smooth Bezel)
Year two of any Rolex collection is when the colorways expand. The Land-Dweller launched with a limited dial palette and that honeycomb texture that split the community right down the middle. Some people love it. Some think the dial is way too busy.
Monochrome predicts new colors, and a possible smooth bezel variant is on the table. A black dial Land-Dweller would be a crowd pleaser. There’s also talk of cleaner dial options, which would bring the watch closer to the Day-Date/Datejust aesthetic but with that integrated Flat Jubilee bracelet.
The honeycomb texture probably isn’t going anywhere, though. Removing it would make the Land-Dweller look too similar to Rolex’s existing dress watches, and Rolex needs visual separation between collections.
Grey market impact: The current Land-Dweller references are still fresh and hard to get. New colors won’t tank existing models. If anything, a wider collection builds more long-term demand for the line as a whole.
3. Explorer II Refresh
The current 42mm Explorer II (ref. 226570) has been getting quiet criticism for a while. The movement is slightly undersized for the case, which pushes the date window inward a bit. Fans have been asking for something that feels more like the beloved 5-digit references.
A refresh here could mean a slightly refined case, better proportions, or just updated details. Nothing radical. But the Explorer II is one of the most underrated Rolex sports watches, and even small changes generate interest.
Grey market impact: The Explorer II is already one of the more accessible Rolex sports models in the $2K-$15K range. A refresh could bump demand for both the new and outgoing references. If you’ve been eyeing a polar dial 226570, now might be the time before a new ref drops and the old one starts climbing.
4. Daytona on a Jubilee Bracelet
Tudor already puts the Black Bay Chrono on a Jubilee. Following that playbook, Rolex could offer the Daytona on a Jubilee bracelet with minimal production changes. It’s a low-effort, high-impact move.
The Daytona is already the hardest Rolex to get at retail. Adding a bracelet option wouldn’t change that, but it would create a new reference that collectors immediately want.
Grey market impact: Any new Daytona reference is going to trade at a premium on day one. If this actually happens, expect steel Jubilee Daytonas to be the most talked-about watch of the year. Current Oyster-bracelet Daytonas won’t lose value. They never do.
5. Perpetual 1908 Moonphase
This one is about Rolex proving the 1908 collection is more than a rebadged Cellini. Monochrome predicts a moonphase complication at 6 o’clock, replacing the small seconds. That means a central seconds hand, which changes the whole feel of the dial.
They’re imagining it across white gold and yellow gold, with opaline or black dials, and the Settimo bracelet option. There’s also speculation that the Settimo bracelet expands to white gold and platinum this year.
A 1908 with a moonphase would be Rolex’s first complication in this collection and a signal that the brand is taking its dress watch line seriously as a platform for growth.
Grey market impact: The 1908 doesn’t trade at the same premiums as sports models, so this is less about flipping and more about long-term positioning. First-edition moonphase references from Rolex tend to appreciate quietly over time.
6. Polar/White Dial Explorer
Tudor recently launched the Ranger with a light dial. Following the Tudor-to-Rolex pipeline pattern (Tudor’s Royal preceded the Land-Dweller, for example), a white or polar dial Explorer feels like a natural next step.
It’s a simple move that refreshes one of Rolex’s entry-level sports watches and generates buzz without requiring major production changes.
7. The GMT-Master II Pepsi Might Be Done
This isn’t a new release. It’s a discontinuation rumor, and it’s getting louder.
The GMT-Master II “Pepsi” BLRO references have quietly disappeared from multiple authorized dealer websites: Bucherer, Schaap & Citroen, William Barthman. The watches are still on the Rolex site, but the AD removals are a pattern we’ve seen before with other discontinued models.
If the Pepsi goes away, the existing BLRO references will start climbing immediately. This has happened every single time Rolex discontinues a popular sports model. The Pepsi on Jubilee is already one of the most in-demand Rolexes on the planet.
Grey market impact: If you can source a BLRO right now at a reasonable price, do it. Discontinued Pepsi GMTs are going to be the next “I should have bought that when I had the chance” watch.
The Bigger Picture
Rolex isn’t the same conservative brand it was five years ago. The Land-Dweller proved that. The Dynapulse escapement proved that. Colored sapphire crystals, moonphase complications, Jubilee Daytonas: these would all be moves from a Rolex that’s playing offense.
For anyone buying in the $2K-$15K grey market range, here’s the playbook heading into April:
If you’re buying to wear: Don’t try to time the market around Watches and Wonders. Buy the watch you want at a fair price. New releases create temporary dips on some existing models, but the watches you want today will still be the watches you want in May.
If you’re buying with an eye on value: Pay attention to what gets discontinued. The Pepsi GMT rumor is the biggest one to watch. And if you’re holding any discontinued Milgauss refs, sit tight.
I’ll be covering everything that drops at Watches and Wonders in real time. If you want help sourcing any of these models, or you’re trying to figure out the right entry point into Rolex, that’s literally what Dialed by H does. DM me @dialedbyh or reply to this post.
Stay dialed.
—
H